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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Vanessa Demopoulos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1463

Vanessa DemopoulosvsMaria OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Saturday, November 19, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vanessa Demopoulos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vanessa Demopoulos wins(57.1%)

Actual result: Vanessa Demopoulos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vanessa Demopoulos at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vanessa Demopoulos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Maria Oliveira has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Maria Oliveira has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vanessa Demopoulos

Red Corner

Maria Oliveira

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1487

Elo

1463

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'6"

149.86 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vanessa DemopoulosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Kanako Murata · Oct 23

vs Emily Ducote · May 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Sep 24

vs Talita Alencar · Apr 25

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Jun 25

latest

Maria Oliveira

oldest →

vs Tabatha Ricci · Oct 21

vs Gloria de Paula · Jun 22

vs Diana Belbita · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vanessa DemopoulosMetricMaria Oliveira

3.37

Strikes / min

5.03

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

5.76

41%

Strike defense

44%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.95

26%

Takedown defense

47%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vanessa DemopoulosMaria Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vanessa Demopoulos(10 fights)Maria Oliveira(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +24.1|Blue -24.1

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vanessa DemopoulosTargetMaria Oliveira

By target zone

65% acc · 80%

Head

44% acc · 66%

100% acc · 9%

Body

95% acc · 24%

86% acc · 11%

Leg

89% acc · 10%

By position

46% acc · 33%

Distance

53% acc · 96%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

89% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vanessa Demopoulos rounds

even

Maria Oliveira rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:39

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Vanessa Demopoulos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control2:40

Knockdowns1

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Maria Oliveira edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns1

Control2:40

35Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 80

Sig Strikes

83 / 154

67%

Sig Str %

53.3%

121 / 154

Total Strikes

95 / 166

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:59

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maria Oliveira	24 / 46	28 / 50	0 / 0
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	14 / 23	31 / 43	1 / 1
2	Maria Oliveira	24 / 43	28 / 47	0 / 0
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	27 / 36	58 / 71	0 / 1
3	Maria Oliveira	35 / 65	39 / 69	0 / 0
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	14 / 21	32 / 40	1 / 2

Vanessa Demopoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach59.0"

Fights10

Maria Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights4