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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Vanessa Demopoulos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1479

Vanessa DemopoulosvsKanako MurataUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Saturday, October 7, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vanessa Demopoulos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vanessa Demopoulos wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Vanessa Demopoulos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vanessa Demopoulos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Kanako Murata has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Kanako Murata has 74pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vanessa Demopoulos

Red Corner

Kanako Murata

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1479

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'1"

149.86 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vanessa DemopoulosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 23

vs Emily Ducote · May 24

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Sep 24

vs Talita Alencar · Apr 25

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Jun 25

latest

Kanako Murata

oldest →

vs Randa Markos · Nov 20

KOvs Virna Jandiroba · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vanessa DemopoulosMetricKanako Murata

3.37

Strikes / min

2.15

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

2.40

41%

Strike defense

53%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

3.38

26%

Takedown defense

100%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vanessa DemopoulosKanako Murata

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vanessa Demopoulos(10 fights)Kanako Murata(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +8.2|Blue -8.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -700.0|Blue +700.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vanessa DemopoulosTargetKanako Murata

By target zone

43% acc · 68%

Head

49% acc · 79%

77% acc · 32%

Body

80% acc · 12%

0% acc

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

28% acc · 32%

Distance

43% acc · 29%

70% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

74% acc · 45%

Ground

57% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vanessa Demopoulos rounds

even

Kanako Murata rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:20

9Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:44Control

Round 2Kanako Murata edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:11Control

Round 3Kanako Murata edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:22

16Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

4:15Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 65

Sig Strikes

34 / 64

52.7%

Sig Str %

52.7%

86 / 144

Total Strikes

70 / 116

0 / 1

TDs

5 / 6

TD %

88.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

10:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kanako Murata	9 / 16	17 / 27	2 / 3
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	17 / 35	27 / 49	0 / 1
2	Kanako Murata	9 / 19	30 / 46	1 / 1
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	9 / 23	35 / 56	0 / 0
3	Kanako Murata	16 / 29	23 / 43	2 / 2
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	5 / 7	24 / 39	0 / 0

Vanessa Demopoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach59.0"

Fights10

Kanako Murata

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights3