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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Vanessa Demopoulos won · S-DEC R3

Elo1487

Elo1495

Vanessa DemopoulosvsEmily DucoteUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · Saturday, May 18, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vanessa Demopoulos won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Vanessa Demopoulos wins(57.9%)

Actual result: Vanessa Demopoulos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Vanessa Demopoulos enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Emily Ducote has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Emily Ducote has 68pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Emily Ducote has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Vanessa Demopoulos

Red Corner

Emily Ducote

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1487

Elo

1495

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'2"

Height

5'2"

149.86 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vanessa DemopoulosL3 streak

oldest →

vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz · May 23

vs Kanako Murata · Oct 23

SUBvs Jaqueline Amorim · Sep 24

vs Talita Alencar · Apr 25

vs Jamey-Lyn Horth · Jun 25

latest

Emily Ducote

oldest →

vs Jessica Penne · Jul 22

vs Angela Hill · Dec 22

vs Loopy Godinez · May 23

vs Ashley Yoder · Oct 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vanessa DemopoulosMetricEmily Ducote

3.37

Strikes / min

7.45

5.39

Strikes absorbed / min

7.84

41%

Strike defense

57%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.20

26%

Takedown defense

94%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.02Δ 1.63 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vanessa DemopoulosEmily Ducote

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vanessa Demopoulos(10 fights)Emily Ducote(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.4|Blue +8.4

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vanessa DemopoulosTargetEmily Ducote

By target zone

30% acc · 70%

Head

57% acc · 60%

72% acc · 17%

Body

85% acc · 15%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

92% acc · 24%

By position

106

37% acc · 97%

Distance

140

66% acc · 98%

75% acc · 3%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vanessa Demopoulos rounds

even

Emily Ducote rounds

Round 1Vanessa Demopoulos edged it

Sig. strikes43

Takedowns0

Control0:00

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

60Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Emily Ducote edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

53Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

109 / 293

Sig Strikes

143 / 214

37%

Sig Str %

65%

126 / 311

Total Strikes

147 / 218

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Emily Ducote	30 / 54	30 / 54	0 / 0
1	Vanessa Demopoulos	43 / 99	43 / 99	0 / 0
2	Emily Ducote	60 / 83	60 / 83	0 / 0
2	Vanessa Demopoulos	36 / 112	37 / 113	0 / 1
3	Emily Ducote	53 / 77	57 / 81	0 / 0
3	Vanessa Demopoulos	30 / 82	46 / 99	0 / 2

Vanessa Demopoulos

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach59.0"

Fights10

Emily Ducote

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights5