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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Lukasz Brzeski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1576

Elo1468

Valter WalkervsLukasz BrzeskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Saturday, April 6, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Lukasz Brzeski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupValter Walker: WrestlervsLukasz Brzeski: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Lukasz Brzeski wins(52.3%)

Actual result: Lukasz Brzeski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lukasz Brzeski at +205 American odds

+$205 profit

$305 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valter Walker enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Lukasz Brzeski enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Lukasz Brzeski has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Lukasz Brzeski has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Valter Walker

Red Corner

Lukasz Brzeski

Blue Corner

-250

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1576

Elo

1468

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

6'3"

198.12 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valter WalkerW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Junior Tafa · Aug 24

SUBvs Don'Tale Mayes · Feb 25

SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 25

SUBvs Louie Sutherland · Oct 25

SUBvs Thomas Petersen · Jul 26

latest

Lukasz BrzeskiL5 streak

oldest →

vs Karl Williams · Mar 23

KOvs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Aug 23

KOvs Mick Parkin · Jul 24

KOvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Dec 24

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valter WalkerMetricLukasz Brzeski

2.00

Strikes / min

4.90

2.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.65

42%

Strike defense

54%

5.74

TDs / 15 min

0.41

Takedown defense

35%

2.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.85Δ 2.10 — meaningful gap+1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valter WalkerLukasz Brzeski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valter Walker(6 fights)Lukasz Brzeski(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +107.3|Blue -107.3

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valter WalkerTargetLukasz Brzeski

By target zone

38% acc · 58%

Head

39% acc · 47%

75% acc · 18%

Body

94% acc · 28%

89% acc · 24%

Leg

100% acc · 26%

By position

43% acc · 70%

Distance

57% acc · 95%

40% acc · 6%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

89% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valter Walker rounds

even

Lukasz Brzeski rounds

Round 1Valter Walker edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control3:16

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Lukasz Brzeski edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:58

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Valter Walker edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:05

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:32Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 67

Sig Strikes

58 / 102

48.7%

Sig Str %

56%

56 / 101

Total Strikes

135 / 200

4 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:19

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lukasz Brzeski	16 / 27	52 / 67	0 / 0
1	Valter Walker	12 / 18	21 / 33	2 / 2
2	Lukasz Brzeski	32 / 56	39 / 71	0 / 0
2	Valter Walker	16 / 35	17 / 36	1 / 1
3	Lukasz Brzeski	10 / 19	44 / 62	0 / 0
3	Valter Walker	5 / 14	18 / 32	1 / 2

Valter Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights6

Lukasz Brzeski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights7