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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Michel Prazeres won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1403

Valmir LazarovsMichel PrazeresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · Saturday, November 21, 2015Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, Mexico

Official fight result

Michel Prazeres won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupValmir Lazaro: Pressure fightervsMichel Prazeres: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Valmir Lazaro wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Michel Prazeres wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valmir Lazaro at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valmir Lazaro has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Valmir Lazaro has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Valmir Lazaro

Red Corner

Michel Prazeres

Blue Corner

+115

(47%)

Vegas Odds

-135

(57%)

1490

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

5'6"

185.42 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valmir Lazaro

oldest →

vs James Vick · Aug 14

vs James Krause · Feb 15

latest

Michel PrazeresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valmir LazaroMetricMichel Prazeres

4.87

Strikes / min

2.38

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

61%

Strike defense

57%

1.33

TDs / 15 min

3.94

96%

Takedown defense

47%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.78evenly matched on net striking-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valmir LazaroMichel Prazeres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valmir Lazaro(3 fights)Michel Prazeres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +87.3|Blue -87.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valmir LazaroTargetMichel Prazeres

By target zone

33% acc · 71%

Head

29% acc · 60%

40% acc · 5%

Body

40% acc · 10%

100% acc · 24%

Leg

86% acc · 30%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

38% acc · 100%

Clinch

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valmir Lazaro rounds

even

Michel Prazeres rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Valmir Lazaro edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control2:20

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Round 3Valmir Lazaro edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:09

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 102

Sig Strikes

20 / 53

39.7%

Sig Str %

34%

60 / 123

Total Strikes

27 / 60

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 14

—

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

2:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Prazeres	13 / 26	13 / 26	1 / 5
1	Valmir Lazaro	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 0
2	Michel Prazeres	5 / 13	9 / 17	0 / 5
2	Valmir Lazaro	7 / 18	17 / 30	0 / 0
3	Michel Prazeres	2 / 14	5 / 17	0 / 4
3	Valmir Lazaro	16 / 36	25 / 45	0 / 0

Valmir Lazaro

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14