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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1526

Elo1509

Valentina ShevchenkovsZhang WeiliUFC Prediction Result

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · Saturday, November 15, 2025New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsZhang Weili: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Zhang Weili wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Zhang Weili at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Zhang Weili enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Valentina Shevchenko has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Zhang Weili (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Zhang Weili

Blue Corner

-142

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1526

Elo

1509

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'5"

Height

5'4"

167.64 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Sep 21

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

latest

Zhang WeiliW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Joanna Jedrzejczyk · Jun 22

SUBvs Carla Esparza · Nov 22

vs Amanda Lemos · Aug 23

vs Yan Xiaonan · Apr 24

vs Tatiana Suarez · Feb 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricZhang Weili

3.04

Strikes / min

4.66

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.63

63%

Strike defense

53%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

1.96

76%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+2.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoZhang Weili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Zhang Weili(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +17.8|Blue -17.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetZhang Weili

By target zone

48% acc · 51%

Head

15% acc · 28%

82% acc · 34%

Body

50% acc · 41%

86% acc · 15%

Leg

77% acc · 31%

By position

57% acc · 66%

Distance

28% acc · 78%

57% acc · 20%

Clinch

88% acc · 22%

86% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Zhang Weili rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:30

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control4:09

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:43

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control1:16

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control3:46

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

41 / 68

Sig Strikes

32 / 98

63.2%

Sig Str %

29.8%

137 / 186

Total Strikes

80 / 161

5 / 6

TDs

0 / 1

90%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

13:24

Ctrl Time

0:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Zhang Weili	7 / 17	15 / 25	0 / 1
1	Valentina Shevchenko	8 / 13	21 / 26	1 / 1
2	Valentina Shevchenko	9 / 10	34 / 38	1 / 1
2	Zhang Weili	1 / 8	12 / 19	0 / 0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	7 / 18	19 / 32	1 / 2
3	Zhang Weili	9 / 26	12 / 32	0 / 0
4	Zhang Weili	10 / 30	19 / 39	0 / 0
4	Valentina Shevchenko	13 / 21	31 / 45	1 / 1
5	Valentina Shevchenko	4 / 6	32 / 45	1 / 1
5	Zhang Weili	5 / 17	22 / 46	0 / 0

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Zhang Weili

StanceSwitch

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights9