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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1526

Elo1522

Valentina ShevchenkovsManon FiorotUFC Prediction Result

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · Saturday, May 10, 2025Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsManon Fiorot: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at +116 American odds

+$116 profit

$216 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Manon Fiorot enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Manon Fiorot

Blue Corner

+116

(46%)

Vegas Odds

-134

(57%)

1526

Elo

1522

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Sep 21

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Manon FiorotW5 streak

oldest →

vs Jennifer Maia · Mar 22

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Oct 22

vs Rose Namajunas · Sep 23

vs Erin Blanchfield · Mar 24

KOvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricManon Fiorot

3.04

Strikes / min

5.66

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.58

63%

Strike defense

66%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

1.05

76%

Takedown defense

87%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.04 — meaningful gap+2.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoManon Fiorot

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Manon Fiorot(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.4|Blue -4.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -168.0|Blue +168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetManon Fiorot

By target zone

41% acc · 67%

Head

26% acc · 41%

58% acc · 10%

Body

95% acc · 49%

89% acc · 24%

Leg

70% acc · 10%

By position

49% acc · 86%

Distance

32% acc · 56%

39% acc · 10%

Clinch

88% acc · 41%

60% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Manon Fiorot rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control1:34

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Manon Fiorot edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 3Manon Fiorot edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:40Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control0:18

Knockdowns1

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:31Control

0Knockdowns

Round 5Manon Fiorot edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:57Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 149

Sig Strikes

71 / 160

47.4%

Sig Str %

44%

173 / 251

Total Strikes

150 / 239

2 / 9

TDs

1 / 12

30%

TD %

6.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:52

Ctrl Time

7:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Manon Fiorot	13 / 32	20 / 39	0 / 0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	19 / 36	57 / 75	1 / 1
2	Manon Fiorot	12 / 28	31 / 47	1 / 5
2	Valentina Shevchenko	8 / 20	21 / 33	0 / 3
3	Manon Fiorot	14 / 28	29 / 43	0 / 5
3	Valentina Shevchenko	14 / 28	36 / 50	0 / 1
4	Valentina Shevchenko	16 / 32	29 / 45	1 / 2
4	Manon Fiorot	14 / 33	32 / 51	0 / 2
5	Manon Fiorot	18 / 39	38 / 59	0 / 0
5	Valentina Shevchenko	15 / 33	30 / 48	0 / 2

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Manon Fiorot

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights9