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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1526

Elo1492

Valentina ShevchenkovsLiz CarmoucheUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2 · Saturday, August 10, 2019Montevideo, Uruguay

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsLiz Carmouche: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -1100 American odds

+$9 profit

$109 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Liz Carmouche

Blue Corner

-1100

(92%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1526

Elo

1492

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Liz CarmoucheW2 streak

oldest →

vs Lauren Murphy · Apr 15

vs Katlyn Chookagian · Nov 16

vs Alexis Davis · Dec 17

vs Jennifer Maia · Jul 18

vs Lucie Pudilova · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricLiz Carmouche

3.04

Strikes / min

2.78

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

63%

Strike defense

61%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

2.57

76%

Takedown defense

65%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.27

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoLiz Carmouche

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Liz Carmouche(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +34.7|Blue -34.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -105.0|Blue +105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetLiz Carmouche

By target zone

22% acc · 38%

Head

3% acc · 6%

33% acc · 10%

Body

57% acc · 22%

73% acc · 52%

Leg

45% acc · 72%

By position

36% acc · 90%

Distance

23% acc · 94%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

38% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Liz Carmouche rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:33

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control2:59

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control3:17

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 115

Sig Strikes

18 / 76

39.4%

Sig Str %

21.6%

84 / 159

Total Strikes

132 / 191

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 4

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:49

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Liz Carmouche	4 / 19	4 / 19	0 / 0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	7 / 26	7 / 26	0 / 0
2	Liz Carmouche	7 / 19	7 / 19	0 / 1
2	Valentina Shevchenko	12 / 37	12 / 37	0 / 0
3	Liz Carmouche	5 / 15	43 / 53	0 / 0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	11 / 28	19 / 37	1 / 1
4	Valentina Shevchenko	6 / 12	18 / 24	0 / 0
4	Liz Carmouche	0 / 12	30 / 42	0 / 2
5	Liz Carmouche	2 / 11	48 / 58	0 / 1
5	Valentina Shevchenko	6 / 12	28 / 35	0 / 0

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Liz Carmouche

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10