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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1526

Elo1493

Valentina ShevchenkovsLauren MurphyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Saturday, September 25, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 4:00

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsLauren Murphy: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(75.4%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -1375 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Lauren Murphy

Blue Corner

-1375

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1526

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Lauren MurphyL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Liliya Shakirova · Oct 20

vs Joanne Calderwood · Jun 21

vs Miesha Tate · Jul 22

vs Jessica Andrade · Jan 23

vs Eduarda Moura · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricLauren Murphy

3.04

Strikes / min

3.94

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.19

63%

Strike defense

56%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

1.09

76%

Takedown defense

67%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 2.29 — meaningful gap-1.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoLauren Murphy

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Lauren Murphy(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +33.5|Blue -33.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetLauren Murphy

By target zone

49% acc · 63%

Head

5% acc · 36%

79% acc · 19%

Body

23% acc · 27%

85% acc · 17%

Leg

80% acc · 36%

By position

53% acc · 73%

Distance

12% acc · 100%

75% acc · 6%

Clinch

80% acc · 20%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Lauren Murphy rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:22

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:13

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:17

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes47

Takedowns1

Control1:12

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

98 / 170

Sig Strikes

11 / 91

55.8%

Sig Str %

10.8%

132 / 204

Total Strikes

19 / 100

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

83.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:04

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Lauren Murphy	3 / 24	3 / 24	0 / 0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	20 / 39	24 / 43	1 / 1
2	Valentina Shevchenko	10 / 17	30 / 37	1 / 2
2	Lauren Murphy	1 / 18	8 / 26	0 / 0
3	Lauren Murphy	5 / 30	6 / 31	0 / 0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	21 / 48	25 / 52	0 / 0
4	Lauren Murphy	2 / 19	2 / 19	0 / 0
4	Valentina Shevchenko	47 / 66	53 / 72	1 / 1

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Lauren Murphy

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15