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Women's Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Valentina Shevchenko won · SUB R2

Elo1526

Elo1496

Valentina ShevchenkovsJulianna PenaUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena · Saturday, January 28, 2017Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:29

Model Prediction: Julianna Pena wins(54.8%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Julianna Pena at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Valentina Shevchenko has 52pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Julianna Pena

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1526

Elo

1496

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Julianna Pena

oldest →

SUBvs Sara McMann · Jan 21

SUBvs Amanda Nunes · Dec 21

vs Amanda Nunes · Jul 22

vs Raquel Pennington · Oct 24

SUBvs Kayla Harrison · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricJulianna Pena

3.04

Strikes / min

3.10

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.56

63%

Strike defense

57%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

1.70

76%

Takedown defense

24%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoJulianna Pena

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Julianna Pena(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +30.2|Blue -30.2

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetJulianna Pena

By target zone

56% acc · 38%

Head

40% acc · 7%

100% acc · 54%

Body

81% acc · 81%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

25% acc · 8%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 54%

Clinch

83% acc · 93%

83% acc · 38%

Ground

67% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Julianna Pena rounds

Round 1Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:42

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:53Control

Round 2Julianna Pena edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 17

Sig Strikes

27 / 35

83%

Sig Str %

73%

46 / 51

Total Strikes

78 / 99

2 / 2

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

2:42

Ctrl Time

6:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Julianna Pena	20 / 24	46 / 53	0 / 1	0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	8 / 12	25 / 29	2 / 2	0
2	Julianna Pena	7 / 11	32 / 46	1 / 4	0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	5 / 5	21 / 22	0 / 0	1

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Julianna Pena

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights12