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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC R5

Elo1526

Elo1427

Valentina ShevchenkovsJoanna JedrzejczykUFC Prediction Result

UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 8, 2018Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsJoanna Jedrzejczyk: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Joanna Jedrzejczyk wins(57.4%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Joanna Jedrzejczyk at +250 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

Blue Corner

-300

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+250

(29%)

1526

Elo

1427

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Joanna JedrzejczykL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rose Namajunas · Apr 18

vs Tecia Torres · Jul 18

vs Michelle Waterson · Oct 19

vs Weili Zhang · Mar 20

KOvs Zhang Weili · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricJoanna Jedrzejczyk

3.04

Strikes / min

6.28

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

63%

Strike defense

62%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

0.27

76%

Takedown defense

80%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04Δ 1.99 — meaningful gap+3.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoJoanna Jedrzejczyk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Joanna Jedrzejczyk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetJoanna Jedrzejczyk

By target zone

37% acc · 56%

Head

9% acc · 15%

64% acc · 18%

Body

56% acc · 56%

74% acc · 26%

Leg

56% acc · 28%

By position

41% acc · 73%

Distance

26% acc · 76%

67% acc · 18%

Clinch

73% acc · 24%

100% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Joanna Jedrzejczyk rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control2:21

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns3

Control1:43

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:22

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control2:17

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control1:32

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 191

Sig Strikes

78 / 250

47.8%

Sig Str %

31.4%

118 / 223

Total Strikes

124 / 300

5 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

35%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:15

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	15 / 40	24 / 51	0 / 0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	11 / 21	20 / 32	1 / 4
2	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	10 / 54	12 / 56	0 / 0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	21 / 43	32 / 55	3 / 3
3	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	16 / 56	19 / 59	0 / 0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	19 / 38	19 / 38	0 / 4
4	Valentina Shevchenko	18 / 33	22 / 37	1 / 2
4	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	17 / 41	21 / 45	0 / 0
5	Joanna Jedrzejczyk	20 / 59	48 / 89	0 / 0
5	Valentina Shevchenko	20 / 56	25 / 61	0 / 1

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Joanna Jedrzejczyk

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights15