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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Valentina Shevchenko won · KO/TKO

Elo1526

Elo1484

Valentina ShevchenkovsJessica AndradeUFC Prediction Result

UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Saturday, April 24, 2021Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

KO/TKO

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsJessica Andrade: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(67.8%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -450 American odds

+$22 profit

$122 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Jessica Andrade enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).
Valentina Shevchenko has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Jessica Andrade

Blue Corner

-450

(82%)

Vegas Odds

+360

(22%)

1526

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'1"

167.64 cm

Reach

157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak

oldest →

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Jessica AndradeL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mackenzie Dern · Nov 23

vs Marina Rodriguez · Apr 24

vs Natalia Silva · Sep 24

SUBvs Jasmine Jasudavicius · May 25

vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricJessica Andrade

3.04

Strikes / min

6.37

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

5.58

63%

Strike defense

54%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

2.10

76%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoJessica Andrade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Jessica Andrade(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.9|Blue -42.9

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red -1.5|Blue +1.5

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetJessica Andrade

By target zone

79% acc · 84%

Head

33% acc · 20%

100% acc · 9%

Body

100% acc · 80%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

0% acc

By position

60% acc · 28%

Distance

44% acc · 40%

83% acc · 16%

Clinch

100% acc · 60%

100% acc · 56%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Jessica Andrade rounds

Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns5

Control2:52

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns2

Control2:19

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 39

Sig Strikes

10 / 15

78.5%

Sig Str %

61%

90 / 97

Total Strikes

47 / 55

7 / 7

TDs

0 / 2

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:11

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jessica Andrade	8 / 11	31 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	10 / 16	26 / 32	5 / 5	1
2	Jessica Andrade	2 / 4	16 / 18	0 / 2	0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	22 / 23	64 / 65	2 / 2	0

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Jessica Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height61.0"

Reach62.0"

Fights30