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Women's Flyweight
3 Rounds
Valentina Shevchenko won · U-DEC
Elo1526
Valentina Shevchenko
Elo1499

Valentina ShevchenkovsJennifer MaiaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Saturday, November 21, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Valentina Shevchenko won

U-DEC

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsJennifer Maia: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(72.2%)

Actual result: Valentina Shevchenko wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -1667 American odds

+$6 profit

$106 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Valentina Shevchenko has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko
Red Corner
VS
Jennifer Maia
Blue Corner
-1667
(94%)
Vegas Odds
+850
(11%)
1526
Elo
1499
38
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Taila Santos · Jun 22
L
SUBvs Alexa Grasso · Mar 23
W
vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24
W
vs Manon Fiorot · May 25
W
vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25
latest
Jennifer Maia
oldest →
L
vs Katlyn Chookagian · Jan 22
L
vs Manon Fiorot · Mar 22
W
vs Maryna Moroz · Nov 22
W
vs Casey O'Neill · Mar 23
L
vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricJennifer Maia
3.04
Strikes / min
4.35
2.00
Strikes absorbed / min
4.52
63%
Strike defense
55%
2.65
TDs / 15 min
0.42
76%
Takedown defense
58%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.04Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.17

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1599 vs 1520Strikes3.1 vs 4.1Takedowns2.1 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.40 vs 0.20Form1.0 vs 0.5
Valentina ShevchenkoJennifer Maia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801495151015251540← oldermost recent →
Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Jennifer Maia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +27.2|Blue -27.2
Recent Form
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +175.0|Blue -175.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetJennifer Maia

By target zone

46
46% acc · 74%
Head
22
31% acc · 61%
13
81% acc · 21%
Body
10
83% acc · 28%
3
100% acc · 5%
Leg
4
100% acc · 11%

By position

50
49% acc · 81%
Distance
23
32% acc · 64%
10
71% acc · 16%
Clinch
11
92% acc · 31%
2
100% acc · 3%
Ground
2
67% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

4
Valentina Shevchenko rounds
0
even
1
Jennifer Maia rounds
Round 1Valentina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns1
Control4:29
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Jennifer Maia edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns1
Control0:09
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:33Control
Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns2
Control1:32
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:24Control
Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control3:15
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Valentina Shevchenko edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:09
18Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
62 / 119
Sig Strikes
36 / 88
50.2%
Sig Str %
39.6%
249 / 317
Total Strikes
94 / 152
5 / 6
TDs
1 / 2
80%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
9:34
Ctrl Time
7:51

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jennifer Maia1 / 617 / 250 / 00
1Valentina Shevchenko4 / 947 / 571 / 10
2Jennifer Maia7 / 929 / 341 / 10
2Valentina Shevchenko3 / 541 / 451 / 10
3Jennifer Maia5 / 1914 / 280 / 00
3Valentina Shevchenko8 / 2230 / 442 / 20
4Valentina Shevchenko12 / 2268 / 821 / 10
4Jennifer Maia5 / 236 / 240 / 00
5Jennifer Maia18 / 3128 / 410 / 10
5Valentina Shevchenko35 / 6163 / 890 / 10

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights18

Jennifer Maia

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights12