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Women's Flyweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Alexa Grasso won · SUB R4

Elo1526

Elo1512

Valentina ShevchenkovsAlexa GrassoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Saturday, March 4, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Alexa Grasso won

SUB · Round 4 · 4:34

Style matchupValentina Shevchenko: WrestlervsAlexa Grasso: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Valentina Shevchenko wins(66.0%)

Actual result: Alexa Grasso wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valentina Shevchenko at -600 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Valentina Shevchenko enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Valentina Shevchenko has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Valentina Shevchenko (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Valentina Shevchenko

Red Corner

Alexa Grasso

Blue Corner

-600

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1526

Elo

1512

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Valentina ShevchenkoW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Lauren Murphy · Sep 21

vs Taila Santos · Jun 22

vs Alexa Grasso · Sep 24

vs Manon Fiorot · May 25

vs Zhang Weili · Nov 25

latest

Alexa Grasso

oldest →

SUBvs Joanne Wood · Mar 22

vs Viviane Araujo · Oct 22

vs Valentina Shevchenko · Sep 24

vs Natalia Silva · May 25

KOvs Maycee Barber · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Valentina ShevchenkoMetricAlexa Grasso

3.04

Strikes / min

4.11

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

3.71

63%

Strike defense

58%

2.65

TDs / 15 min

0.40

76%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.04evenly matched on net striking+0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Valentina ShevchenkoAlexa Grasso

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Valentina Shevchenko(10 fights)Alexa Grasso(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +126.0|Blue -126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Valentina ShevchenkoTargetAlexa Grasso

By target zone

56% acc · 78%

Head

23% acc · 53%

67% acc · 9%

Body

67% acc · 20%

92% acc · 13%

Leg

62% acc · 27%

By position

60% acc · 92%

Distance

29% acc · 85%

29% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Valentina Shevchenko rounds

even

Alexa Grasso rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control3:02

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns2

Control2:22

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Valentina Shevchenko edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:05Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

87 / 145

Sig Strikes

59 / 181

60.8%

Sig Str %

31.3%

167 / 228

Total Strikes

182 / 308

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 2

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:24

Ctrl Time

1:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexa Grasso	24 / 65	32 / 74	0 / 1	0
1	Valentina Shevchenko	26 / 51	26 / 51	0 / 1	0
2	Valentina Shevchenko	12 / 22	56 / 68	2 / 2	0
2	Alexa Grasso	7 / 36	60 / 89	0 / 0	0
3	Alexa Grasso	15 / 37	70 / 94	0 / 0	0
3	Valentina Shevchenko	27 / 32	53 / 59	2 / 2	0
4	Alexa Grasso	13 / 43	20 / 51	0 / 1	1
4	Valentina Shevchenko	22 / 40	32 / 50	0 / 1	0

Valentina Shevchenko

StanceSouthpaw

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights18

Alexa Grasso

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14