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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Donald Cerrone won · U-DEC R3

Elo1354

Elo1429

Vagner RochavsDonald CerroneUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Donald Cerrone won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupVagner Rocha: Submission grapplervsDonald Cerrone: Submission grappler

Submission battle — patience and grip-fighting decide it on the mat.

Model Prediction: Donald Cerrone wins(86.9%)

Actual result: Donald Cerrone wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donald Cerrone at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Donald Cerrone enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Donald Cerrone has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Vagner Rocha

Red Corner

Donald Cerrone

Blue Corner

+325

(24%)

Vegas Odds

-400

(80%)

1354

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Vagner RochaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cody McKenzie · Sep 11

KOvs Jonathan Brookins · Feb 12

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Nov 14

latest

Donald CerroneL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Sep 19

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jan 20

vs Anthony Pettis · May 20

KOvs Alex Morono · May 21

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Vagner RochaMetricDonald Cerrone

2.64

Strikes / min

4.41

4.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.48

48%

Strike defense

53%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

1.16

50%

Takedown defense

73%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.86Δ 1.79 — meaningful gap-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Vagner RochaDonald Cerrone

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Vagner Rocha(4 fights)Donald Cerrone(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -74.9|Blue +74.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Vagner RochaTargetDonald Cerrone

By target zone

36% acc · 67%

Head

34% acc · 29%

50% acc · 11%

Body

73% acc · 13%

91% acc · 22%

Leg

88% acc · 58%

By position

43% acc · 96%

Distance

59% acc · 97%

100% acc · 2%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

33% acc · 2%

Ground

33% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Vagner Rocha rounds

even

Donald Cerrone rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:26

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Round 2Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:30

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Donald Cerrone edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 106

Sig Strikes

86 / 145

42.3%

Sig Str %

58.7%

47 / 108

Total Strikes

87 / 146

1 / 7

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:40

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Donald Cerrone	24 / 42	24 / 42	0 / 0
1	Vagner Rocha	19 / 37	20 / 39	1 / 1
2	Donald Cerrone	22 / 37	23 / 38	0 / 0
2	Vagner Rocha	9 / 30	9 / 30	0 / 4
3	Donald Cerrone	40 / 66	40 / 66	0 / 1
3	Vagner Rocha	18 / 39	18 / 39	0 / 2

Vagner Rocha

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Donald Cerrone

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights37