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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Myktybek Orolbai won · SUB R2

Elo1539

Elo1549

Uros MedicvsMyktybek OrolbaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Saturday, November 18, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Myktybek Orolbai won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:12

Style matchupUros Medic: StrikervsMyktybek Orolbai: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Myktybek Orolbai wins(55.0%)

Actual result: Myktybek Orolbai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Myktybek Orolbai at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Uros Medic enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Myktybek Orolbai enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Myktybek Orolbai threatens submissions; Uros Medic has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Uros Medic has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Uros Medic (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Uros Medic

Red Corner

Myktybek Orolbai

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1539

Elo

1549

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'10"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uros MedicW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24

KOvs Punahele Soriano · Jan 25

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Feb 26

latest

Myktybek OrolbaiW3 streak

oldest →

vs Elves Brener · May 24

vs Mateusz Rebecki · Oct 24

SUBvs Tofiq Musayev · Jun 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Nov 25

vs Chris Curtis · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uros MedicMetricMyktybek Orolbai

5.59

Strikes / min

2.78

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

56%

Strike defense

51%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

8.77

55%

Takedown defense

40%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.17Δ 2.09 — meaningful gap+0.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Uros MedicMyktybek Orolbai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Uros Medic(10 fights)Myktybek Orolbai(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.7|Blue +9.7

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uros MedicTargetMyktybek Orolbai

By target zone

50% acc · 71%

Head

38% acc · 75%

57% acc · 29%

Body

Leg

50% acc · 25%

By position

36% acc · 36%

Distance

38% acc · 38%

67% acc · 57%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

36% acc · 50%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Uros Medic rounds

even

Myktybek Orolbai rounds

Round 1Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:02

5Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

3:49Control

Round 2Myktybek Orolbai edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 27

Sig Strikes

8 / 20

28%

Sig Str %

40%

17 / 32

Total Strikes

16 / 31

0 / 0

TDs

7 / 10

—

TD %

81%

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

7:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Myktybek Orolbai	5 / 13	6 / 14	5 / 8	0
1	Uros Medic	14 / 25	15 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Myktybek Orolbai	3 / 7	10 / 17	2 / 2	1
2	Uros Medic	0 / 2	2 / 4	0 / 0	0

Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Myktybek Orolbai

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6