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Welterweight
5 Rounds
2 days away
Elo1539
Uros Medic editorial illustration
Elo1520
Daniel Rodriguez editorial illustration

Uros MedicvsDaniel RodriguezUFC Prediction

UFC Fight Night: Medic vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, August 1, 2026Belgrade, Serbia

Fight begins in
Style matchupUros Medic: StrikervsDaniel Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Fight Detective pick

We select Daniel Rodriguez to win. Informational only—not a guarantee or betting advice.

Market-implied probability
Daniel Rodriguez
24.3% market-implied
vs Uros Medic (75.7%)
Model estimate
Daniel Rodriguez
52.6% model estimate
Internal research signal — not a betting edge.
Market odds
Uros Medic-380 (79.2%)
Daniel Rodriguez+294 (25.4%)

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Uros Medic enters on a 3-fight win streak.
  • Daniel Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Uros Medic
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+294
(25%)
1539
Elo
1520
33
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uros MedicW3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24
L
KOvs Punahele Soriano · Jan 25
W
KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25
W
KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25
W
KOvs Geoff Neal · Feb 26
latest
Daniel RodriguezW3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Ian Machado Garry · May 23
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Jun 24
W
vs Alex Morono · Oct 24
W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · May 25
W
vs Kevin Holland · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uros MedicMetricDaniel Rodriguez
5.59
Strikes / min
7.20
3.42
Strikes absorbed / min
5.40
56%
Strike defense
57%
0.34
TDs / 15 min
0.51
55%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.17evenly matched on net striking+1.80
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Uros Medic(10 fights)Daniel Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +18.9|Blue -18.9
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red -217.0|Blue +217.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Method Projection

Matchup projection based on both fighters' finish patterns and vulnerabilities. These three projected methods total 100%. Most likely: KO / TKO.

KO / TKO65%

Historical win share: Uros Medic earned 100% of wins by KO/TKO.

Submission35%

Historical win share: Daniel Rodriguez earned 10% of wins by submission.

Decision0%

Both fighters frequently end fights early.

The Pick

Vegas favorite
Uros Medic
Odds
-380

Market-implied probability

Daniel Rodriguez 24%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Uros Medic$126
Daniel Rodriguez (model pick · research)$394

24% market-implied · model 53% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

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Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Daniel Rodriguez

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14