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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Uros Medic won · KO/TKO

Elo1539

Elo1397

Uros MedicvsAalon CruzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · Saturday, March 6, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Uros Medic won

KO/TKO

Style matchupUros Medic: StrikervsAalon Cruz: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Uros Medic wins(74.2%)

Actual result: Uros Medic wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Uros Medic at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Uros Medic enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Uros Medic is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Aalon Cruz has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Uros Medic has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Aalon Cruz (54.1%).
Aalon Cruz has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Uros Medic

Red Corner

Aalon Cruz

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1539

Elo

1397

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uros MedicW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Tim Means · Apr 24

KOvs Punahele Soriano · Jan 25

KOvs Gilbert Urbina · Aug 25

KOvs Muslim Salikhov · Nov 25

KOvs Geoff Neal · Feb 26

latest

Aalon Cruz

oldest →

KOvs Spike Carlyle · Feb 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uros MedicMetricAalon Cruz

5.59

Strikes / min

7.58

3.42

Strikes absorbed / min

8.88

56%

Strike defense

58%

0.34

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.17Δ 3.47 — meaningful gap-1.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Uros MedicAalon Cruz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Uros Medic(10 fights)Aalon Cruz(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +142.5|Blue -142.5

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +49.3|Blue -49.3

Grappler Score

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uros MedicTargetAalon Cruz

By target zone

70% acc · 96%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 2%

Body

0% acc

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

88% acc · 16%

Distance

0% acc

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

67% acc · 78%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Uros Medic rounds

even

Aalon Cruz rounds

Round 1Uros Medic edged it

Sig. strikes45

Takedowns0

Control0:56

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 63

Sig Strikes

0 / 3

71%

Sig Str %

55 / 74

Total Strikes

0 / 3

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Aalon Cruz	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 2	0
1	Uros Medic	45 / 63	55 / 74	0 / 0	0

Uros Medic

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Aalon Cruz

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights2