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Bantamweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Renan Barao won · U-DEC R5

Elo1492

Elo1378

Urijah FabervsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · Saturday, July 21, 2012Calgary, Alberta, Canada

Official fight result

Renan Barao won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsRenan Barao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Renan Barao wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Renan Barao wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Renan Barao at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1492

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Renan BaraoL5 streak

oldest →

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

vs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Nov 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricRenan Barao

2.65

Strikes / min

3.78

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

64%

Strike defense

57%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

1.49

58%

Takedown defense

91%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Urijah FaberRenan Barao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Urijah Faber(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +114.1|Blue -114.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +77.0|Blue -77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

27% acc · 63%

Head

23% acc · 65%

46% acc · 20%

Body

43% acc · 12%

91% acc · 17%

Leg

65% acc · 24%

By position

34% acc · 95%

Distance

29% acc · 95%

38% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Urijah Faber rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:08

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 178

Sig Strikes

85 / 290

32.4%

Sig Str %

28.6%

62 / 180

Total Strikes

85 / 290

0 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:08

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renan Barao	12 / 42	12 / 42	0 / 0
1	Urijah Faber	7 / 27	7 / 27	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	22 / 65	22 / 65	0 / 0
2	Urijah Faber	12 / 32	12 / 32	0 / 0
3	Renan Barao	16 / 67	16 / 67	0 / 0
3	Urijah Faber	19 / 46	20 / 47	0 / 3
4	Urijah Faber	8 / 32	9 / 33	0 / 3
4	Renan Barao	21 / 66	21 / 66	0 / 0
5	Renan Barao	14 / 50	14 / 50	0 / 0
5	Urijah Faber	14 / 41	14 / 41	0 / 0

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17