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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Urijah Faber won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1491

Urijah FabervsMichael McDonaldUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · Saturday, December 14, 2013Sacramento, California, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:22

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsMichael McDonald: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Urijah Faber wins(58.6%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Urijah Faber at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Urijah Faber threatens submissions; Michael McDonald has lost 67% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber

Red Corner

Michael McDonald

Blue Corner

-150

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+130

(43%)

1492

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Michael McDonald

oldest →

KOvs Miguel Torres · Apr 12

SUBvs Renan Barao · Feb 13

SUBvs Brad Pickett · Aug 13

SUBvs Masanori Kanehara · Jan 16

KOvs John Lineker · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricMichael McDonald

2.65

Strikes / min

2.69

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

2.76

64%

Strike defense

57%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

1.09

58%

Takedown defense

52%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Urijah FaberMichael McDonald

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Urijah Faber(10 fights)Michael McDonald(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetMichael McDonald

By target zone

57% acc · 69%

Head

25% acc · 67%

71% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 11%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 22%

By position

58% acc · 76%

Distance

33% acc · 100%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 24%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Urijah Faber rounds

even

Michael McDonald rounds

Round 1Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control2:41

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 46

Sig Strikes

9 / 27

63.5%

Sig Str %

34%

59 / 79

Total Strikes

11 / 29

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:55

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michael McDonald	3 / 8	5 / 10	0 / 0	0
1	Urijah Faber	13 / 19	43 / 52	1 / 1	0
2	Michael McDonald	6 / 19	6 / 19	0 / 0	0
2	Urijah Faber	16 / 27	16 / 27	0 / 1	1

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Michael McDonald

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9