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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Urijah Faber won · SUB R1
Elo1492
Elo1353

Urijah FabervsIvan MenjivarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · Saturday, February 23, 2013Anaheim, California, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

SUB · Round 1 · 4:34

Model Prediction: Urijah Faber wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Urijah Faber at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Urijah Faber has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber
Red Corner
VS
Ivan Menjivar
Blue Corner
-350
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+318
(24%)
1492
Elo
1353
47
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
170.18 cm
Reach
162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber
oldest →
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16
W
vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16
W
KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19
L
KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19
latest
Ivan MenjivarL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs John Albert · Feb 12
L
vs Mike Easton · Jul 12
W
SUBvs Azamat Gashimov · Nov 12
L
vs Wilson Reis · Sep 13
L
vs Hatsu Hioki · Mar 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricIvan Menjivar
2.65
Strikes / min
2.78
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
2.76
64%
Strike defense
65%
1.54
TDs / 15 min
0.56
58%
Takedown defense
38%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.02

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1545Strikes48.8 vs 24.7Takedowns1.0 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.83Form-0.3 vs 0.5
Urijah FaberIvan Menjivar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Urijah Faber(10 fights)Ivan Menjivar(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +139.1|Blue -139.1
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +119.0|Blue -119.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetIvan Menjivar

By target zone

16
70% acc · 94%
Head
3
50% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Body
0
0% acc
0
Leg
0

By position

1
33% acc · 6%
Distance
1
33% acc · 33%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
2
67% acc · 67%
15
75% acc · 88%
Ground
0
0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Urijah Faber rounds
0
even
0
Ivan Menjivar rounds
Round 1Urijah Faber edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control4:03
3Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
17 / 24
Sig Strikes
3 / 7
70%
Sig Str %
42%
29 / 36
Total Strikes
19 / 23
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
1
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
4:03
Ctrl Time
0:04

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ivan Menjivar3 / 719 / 231 / 10
1Urijah Faber17 / 2429 / 360 / 01

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18

Ivan Menjivar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights8