Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Urijah Faber won · U-DEC R3

Elo1492

Elo1387

Urijah FabervsFrankie SaenzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · Saturday, December 12, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsFrankie Saenz: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at +390 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Urijah Faber has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber

Red Corner

Frankie Saenz

Blue Corner

-490

(83%)

Vegas Odds

+390

(20%)

1492

Elo

1387

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

170.18 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricFrankie Saenz

2.65

Strikes / min

3.94

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.50

64%

Strike defense

52%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

1.74

58%

Takedown defense

61%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Urijah FaberFrankie Saenz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Urijah Faber(10 fights)Frankie Saenz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.9|Blue -104.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetFrankie Saenz

By target zone

61% acc · 71%

Head

33% acc · 44%

91% acc · 27%

Body

71% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

85% acc · 33%

By position

55% acc · 45%

Distance

46% acc · 70%

83% acc · 53%

Clinch

58% acc · 29%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

33% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Urijah Faber rounds

even

Frankie Saenz rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:11

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:23Control

Round 2Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns1

Control0:50

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 3Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control0:53

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

75 / 111

Sig Strikes

66 / 136

66.7%

Sig Str %

49.3%

80 / 116

Total Strikes

72 / 143

2 / 13

TDs

0 / 3

19.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:54

Ctrl Time

2:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frankie Saenz	23 / 48	23 / 48	0 / 0
1	Urijah Faber	25 / 36	27 / 38	0 / 6
2	Frankie Saenz	23 / 36	29 / 43	0 / 0
2	Urijah Faber	30 / 39	32 / 41	1 / 4
3	Frankie Saenz	20 / 52	20 / 52	0 / 3
3	Urijah Faber	20 / 36	21 / 37	1 / 3

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10