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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Urijah Faber won · SUB R2

Elo1492

Elo1358

Urijah FabervsFrancisco RiveraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II · Saturday, December 6, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:34

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsFrancisco Rivera: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Urijah Faber wins(56.3%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Urijah Faber at -925 American odds

+$11 profit

$111 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Urijah Faber threatens submissions; Francisco Rivera has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber

Red Corner

Francisco Rivera

Blue Corner

-925

(90%)

Vegas Odds

+725

(12%)

1492

Elo

1358

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Francisco RiveraL3 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricFrancisco Rivera

2.65

Strikes / min

4.07

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.16

64%

Strike defense

68%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

1.01

58%

Takedown defense

68%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06evenly matched on net striking+0.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Urijah FaberFrancisco Rivera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Urijah Faber(10 fights)Francisco Rivera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetFrancisco Rivera

By target zone

36% acc · 79%

Head

15% acc · 47%

43% acc · 16%

Body

100% acc · 13%

33% acc · 5%

Leg

86% acc · 40%

By position

34% acc · 84%

Distance

27% acc · 100%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

67% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Urijah Faber rounds

even

Francisco Rivera rounds

Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

19 / 52

Sig Strikes

15 / 56

40%

Sig Str %

22%

19 / 52

Total Strikes

15 / 56

0 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Francisco Rivera	13 / 42	13 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Urijah Faber	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 2	0
2	Francisco Rivera	2 / 14	2 / 14	0 / 0	0
2	Urijah Faber	8 / 16	8 / 16	0 / 1	1

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10