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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Urijah Faber won · SUB R3

Elo1492

Elo1500

Urijah FabervsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · Saturday, July 5, 2014Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Urijah Faber won

SUB · Round 3 · 1:09

Style matchupUrijah Faber: Well-roundedvsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(54.1%)

Actual result: Urijah Faber wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +570 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Urijah Faber threatens submissions; Alex Caceres has lost 38% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).
Alex Caceres has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Urijah Faber

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

-705

(88%)

Vegas Odds

+570

(15%)

1492

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

170.18 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Urijah Faber

oldest →

vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16

vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16

vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16

KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19

KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Urijah FaberMetricAlex Caceres

2.65

Strikes / min

4.21

2.59

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

64%

Strike defense

62%

1.54

TDs / 15 min

0.54

58%

Takedown defense

64%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.06Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Urijah FaberAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Urijah Faber(10 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -7.8|Blue +7.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Urijah FaberTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

52% acc · 80%

Head

31% acc · 50%

50% acc · 15%

Body

71% acc · 25%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

83% acc · 25%

By position

32% acc · 30%

Distance

42% acc · 65%

67% acc · 30%

Clinch

67% acc · 30%

80% acc · 40%

Ground

20% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Urijah Faber rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control4:13

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Urijah Faber edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns3

Control2:23

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control0:10

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 38

Sig Strikes

20 / 45

52%

Sig Str %

42.3%

41 / 62

Total Strikes

35 / 62

5 / 12

TDs

0 / 0

56.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:46

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Caceres	3 / 11	8 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Urijah Faber	10 / 13	29 / 35	1 / 5	0
2	Alex Caceres	12 / 24	19 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Urijah Faber	7 / 18	8 / 19	3 / 6	0
3	Alex Caceres	5 / 10	8 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Urijah Faber	3 / 7	4 / 8	1 / 1	1

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29