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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Rafael Natal won · S-DEC R3

Elo1430

Elo1361

Uriah HallvsRafael NatalUFC Prediction Result

UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · Saturday, May 23, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Rafael Natal won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupUriah Hall: Well-roundedvsRafael Natal: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Rafael Natal wins(71.1%)

Actual result: Rafael Natal wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafael Natal at +335 American odds

+$335 profit

$435 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Uriah Hall is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Rafael Natal has lost 57% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Uriah Hall

Red Corner

Rafael Natal

Blue Corner

-420

(81%)

Vegas Odds

+335

(23%)

1430

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uriah HallL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · Sep 19

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 20

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 21

vs Sean Strickland · Jul 21

vs Andre Muniz · Jul 22

latest

Rafael NatalL3 streak

oldest →

vs Tom Watson · Jan 15

KOvs Kevin Casey · Jan 16

vs Robert Whittaker · Apr 16

KOvs Tim Boetsch · Nov 16

KOvs Eryk Anders · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uriah HallMetricRafael Natal

3.23

Strikes / min

3.10

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.48

54%

Strike defense

57%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

2.55

64%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Uriah HallRafael Natal

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Uriah Hall(10 fights)Rafael Natal(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.7|Blue -68.7

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +13.0|Blue -13.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uriah HallTargetRafael Natal

By target zone

38% acc · 35%

Head

24% acc · 33%

71% acc · 35%

Body

43% acc · 13%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

89% acc · 53%

By position

59% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 69%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

82% acc · 31%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Uriah Hall rounds

even

Rafael Natal rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Rafael Natal edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control0:52

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:59Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

43 / 74

Sig Strikes

45 / 103

58.3%

Sig Str %

44%

47 / 78

Total Strikes

63 / 125

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 11

33%

TD %

8.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

2:55

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Natal	21 / 49	21 / 49	0 / 4
1	Uriah Hall	21 / 33	21 / 33	0 / 0
2	Rafael Natal	12 / 23	30 / 45	1 / 4
2	Uriah Hall	9 / 14	13 / 18	1 / 3
3	Rafael Natal	12 / 31	12 / 31	0 / 3
3	Uriah Hall	13 / 27	13 / 27	0 / 0

Uriah Hall

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights20

Rafael Natal

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights16