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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Paulo Costa won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1430

Elo1522

Uriah HallvsPaulo CostaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · Saturday, July 7, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Paulo Costa won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:38

Style matchupUriah Hall: Well-roundedvsPaulo Costa: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Paulo Costa wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Paulo Costa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paulo Costa at -290 American odds

+$34 profit

$134 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Uriah Hall has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Uriah Hall

Red Corner

Paulo Costa

Blue Corner

+245

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-290

(74%)

1430

Elo

1522

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uriah HallL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · Sep 19

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 20

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 21

vs Sean Strickland · Jul 21

vs Andre Muniz · Jul 22

latest

Paulo CostaW2 streak

oldest →

vs Luke Rockhold · Aug 22

vs Robert Whittaker · Feb 24

vs Sean Strickland · Jun 24

vs Roman Kopylov · Jul 25

KOvs Azamat Murzakanov · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uriah HallMetricPaulo Costa

3.23

Strikes / min

6.15

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

5.96

54%

Strike defense

49%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.30

64%

Takedown defense

77%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Uriah HallPaulo Costa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Uriah Hall(10 fights)Paulo Costa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -92.1|Blue +92.1

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uriah HallTargetPaulo Costa

By target zone

44% acc · 78%

Head

53% acc · 52%

53% acc · 14%

Body

83% acc · 44%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

46% acc · 93%

Distance

63% acc · 88%

100% acc · 7%

Clinch

89% acc · 11%

Ground

50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Uriah Hall rounds

even

Paulo Costa rounds

Round 1Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:00

42Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Round 2Paulo Costa edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns0

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 122

Sig Strikes

75 / 116

48.5%

Sig Str %

65%

58 / 122

Total Strikes

76 / 117

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paulo Costa	42 / 69	43 / 70	0 / 0
1	Uriah Hall	34 / 77	34 / 77	0 / 0
2	Paulo Costa	33 / 47	33 / 47	0 / 0
2	Uriah Hall	24 / 45	24 / 45	0 / 1

Uriah Hall

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights20

Paulo Costa

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights11