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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Derek Brunson won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1430

Elo1454

Uriah HallvsDerek BrunsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Johnson · Saturday, September 17, 2016Hidalgo, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Derek Brunson won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:41

Style matchupUriah Hall: Well-roundedvsDerek Brunson: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Derek Brunson at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Uriah Hall is a KO finisher (80% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
Derek Brunson has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Uriah Hall

Red Corner

Derek Brunson

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-185

(65%)

1430

Elo

1454

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'0"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uriah HallL2 streak

oldest →

vs Antonio Carlos Junior · Sep 19

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 20

KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 21

vs Sean Strickland · Jul 21

vs Andre Muniz · Jul 22

latest

Derek BrunsonL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22

KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uriah HallMetricDerek Brunson

3.23

Strikes / min

3.51

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

54%

Strike defense

51%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

3.14

64%

Takedown defense

85%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.62Δ 1.08 — meaningful gap+0.46

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Uriah HallDerek Brunson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Uriah Hall(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -24.5|Blue +24.5

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +99.0|Blue -99.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uriah HallTargetDerek Brunson

By target zone

0% acc

Head

50% acc · 75%

100% acc · 100%

Body

100% acc · 25%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 100%

Distance

100% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 75%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Uriah Hall rounds

even

Derek Brunson rounds

Round 1Derek Brunson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 3

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

33%

Sig Str %

57%

4 / 6

Total Strikes

15 / 18

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Derek Brunson	4 / 7	15 / 18	0 / 3	0
1	Uriah Hall	1 / 3	4 / 6	0 / 0	0

Uriah Hall

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights20

Derek Brunson

StanceSouthpaw

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights21