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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Uran Satybaldiev won · SUB R1
Elo1506
Uran Satybaldiev
Elo1497
Diyar Nurgozhay editorial illustration

Uran SatybaldievvsDiyar NurgozhayUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Saturday, August 23, 2025Shanghai, Hebei, China

Official fight result

Uran Satybaldiev won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:45

Model Prediction: Uran Satybaldiev wins(62.2%)

Actual result: Uran Satybaldiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Uran Satybaldiev at -102 American odds

+$98 profit

$198 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Uran Satybaldiev threatens submissions; Diyar Nurgozhay has lost 100% of fights by sub.
  • Diyar Nurgozhay has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Diyar Nurgozhay has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Diyar Nurgozhay (53.5%).
  • Uran Satybaldiev has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Uran Satybaldiev
Red Corner
VS
Diyar Nurgozhay
Blue Corner
-102
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-116
(54%)
1506
Elo
1497
31
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'4"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Uran Satybaldiev
oldest →
L
vs Martin Buday · Apr 25
latest
Diyar Nurgozhay
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brendson Ribeiro · Mar 25
W
vs Rafael Tobias · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Uran SatybaldievMetricDiyar Nurgozhay
2.14
Strikes / min
4.52
3.66
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
44%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.37
50%
Takedown defense
80%
1.70
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.52Δ 3.23 — meaningful gap+1.71

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1488 vs 1483Strikes2.1 vs 4.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.4Sub Atts1.70 vs 0.00Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Uran SatybaldievDiyar Nurgozhay

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14601475149015051520← oldermost recent →
Uran Satybaldiev(2 fights)Diyar Nurgozhay(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.5|Blue -8.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Uran SatybaldievTargetDiyar Nurgozhay

By target zone

1
25% acc · 50%
Head
1
33% acc · 14%
0
0% acc
Body
3
60% acc · 43%
1
100% acc · 50%
Leg
3
100% acc · 43%

By position

2
25% acc · 100%
Distance
7
64% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
0% acc
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Uran Satybaldiev rounds
1
even
0
Diyar Nurgozhay rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control1:10
Knockdowns1
7Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:18Control
0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
2 / 9
Sig Strikes
7 / 11
22%
Sig Str %
63%
3 / 10
Total Strikes
13 / 19
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 1
—
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
1
Rev
0
1:10
Ctrl Time
0:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diyar Nurgozhay7 / 1113 / 191 / 10
1Uran Satybaldiev2 / 93 / 100 / 02

Uran Satybaldiev

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights2

Diyar Nurgozhay

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3