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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · SUB

Elo1537

Elo1498

Umar NurmagomedovvsSergey MorozovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Magny · Wednesday, January 20, 2021Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

SUB

Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsSergey Morozov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -530 American odds

+$19 profit

$119 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Sergey Morozov

Blue Corner

-530

(84%)

Vegas Odds

+375

(21%)

1537

Elo

1498

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'6"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Sergey MorozovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Khalid Taha · Jul 21

SUBvs Douglas Silva de Andrade · Feb 22

vs Raulian Paiva · Jun 22

vs Journey Newson · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricSergey Morozov

3.86

Strikes / min

3.01

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

2.97

61%

Strike defense

61%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

3.63

79%

Takedown defense

68%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+0.04

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Umar NurmagomedovSergey Morozov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Sergey Morozov(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.4|Blue -38.4

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetSergey Morozov

By target zone

56% acc · 56%

Head

10% acc · 29%

44% acc · 16%

Body

43% acc · 43%

100% acc · 28%

Leg

67% acc · 29%

By position

53% acc · 72%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

100% acc · 24%

Clinch

0% acc

100% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Sergey Morozov rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:08

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns3

Control1:49

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

25 / 41

Sig Strikes

7 / 30

61%

Sig Str %

27.5%

32 / 48

Total Strikes

8 / 31

5 / 11

TDs

0 / 0

45%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:57

Ctrl Time

0:08

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sergey Morozov	3 / 20	3 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	11 / 21	15 / 25	2 / 5	0
2	Sergey Morozov	4 / 10	5 / 11	0 / 0	0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	14 / 20	17 / 23	3 / 6	1

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Sergey Morozov

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights5