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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1537

Elo1550

Umar NurmagomedovvsRaoni BarcelosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Saturday, January 14, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:40

Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsRaoni Barcelos: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(77.8%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -1050 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Raoni Barcelos enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Raoni Barcelos

Blue Corner

-1050

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1537

Elo

1550

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Raoni BarcelosW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Cristian Quinonez · Feb 24

vs Payton Talbott · Jan 25

vs Cody Garbrandt · Jun 25

vs Ricky Simon · Nov 25

DECvs Montel Jackson · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricRaoni Barcelos

3.86

Strikes / min

4.65

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

61%

Strike defense

60%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

2.51

79%

Takedown defense

87%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Umar NurmagomedovRaoni Barcelos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Raoni Barcelos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -13.3|Blue +13.3

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetRaoni Barcelos

By target zone

63% acc · 56%

Head

35% acc · 46%

92% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 38%

67% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

70% acc · 97%

Distance

48% acc · 77%

Clinch

100% acc · 23%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Raoni Barcelos rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 51

Sig Strikes

13 / 24

70%

Sig Str %

54%

36 / 51

Total Strikes

14 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Raoni Barcelos	13 / 24	14 / 25	0 / 1	0
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	36 / 51	36 / 51	0 / 0	0

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Raoni Barcelos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights15