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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1537

Elo1554

Umar NurmagomedovvsMario BautistaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Saturday, October 25, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupUmar Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsMario Bautista: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(66.7%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -620 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mario Bautista enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Mario Bautista (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Mario Bautista

Blue Corner

-620

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+460

(18%)

1537

Elo

1554

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'9"

175.26 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar Nurmagomedov

oldest →

KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23

vs Bekzat Almakhan · Mar 24

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Mario BautistaW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ricky Simon · Jan 24

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 24

vs Patchy Mix · Jun 25

SUBvs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 26

DECvs Cory Sandhagen · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricMario Bautista

3.86

Strikes / min

5.30

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.98

61%

Strike defense

54%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

1.91

79%

Takedown defense

55%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00evenly matched on net striking+1.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Umar NurmagomedovMario Bautista

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Mario Bautista(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -17.3|Blue +17.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +140.0|Blue -140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetMario Bautista

By target zone

55% acc · 75%

Head

16% acc · 30%

75% acc · 19%

Body

79% acc · 55%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

52% acc · 72%

Distance

34% acc · 85%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

67% acc · 10%

88% acc · 22%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Mario Bautista rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns2

Control4:37

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns2

Control3:02

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns7

Control3:07

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 54

Sig Strikes

20 / 54

65%

Sig Str %

57.3%

81 / 105

Total Strikes

33 / 67

11 / 14

TDs

0 / 1

81%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

10:46

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mario Bautista	1 / 1	8 / 8	0 / 0	1
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	5 / 6	32 / 34	2 / 2	0
2	Mario Bautista	9 / 28	14 / 33	0 / 1	0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	12 / 21	29 / 39	2 / 3	0
3	Mario Bautista	10 / 25	11 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Umar Nurmagomedov	15 / 27	20 / 32	7 / 9	0

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Mario Bautista

StanceSwitch

Height69.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights15