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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Umar Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1537

Elo1470

Umar NurmagomedovvsBekzat AlmakhanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Saturday, March 2, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Umar Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Umar Nurmagomedov wins(90.6%)

Actual result: Umar Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Umar Nurmagomedov at -1350 American odds

+$7 profit

$107 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Umar Nurmagomedov has 25pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Umar Nurmagomedov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Umar Nurmagomedov

Red Corner

Bekzat Almakhan

Blue Corner

-1350

(93%)

Vegas Odds

+800

(11%)

1537

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

175.26 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Umar NurmagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Raoni Barcelos · Jan 23

vs Cory Sandhagen · Aug 24

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Jan 25

vs Mario Bautista · Oct 25

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Jan 26

latest

Bekzat AlmakhanL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Brad Katona · May 25

vs Aleksandre Topuria · Nov 25

DECvs Jean Matsumoto · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Umar NurmagomedovMetricBekzat Almakhan

3.86

Strikes / min

1.61

1.86

Strikes absorbed / min

3.73

61%

Strike defense

36%

4.03

TDs / 15 min

0.00

79%

Takedown defense

41%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.00Δ 4.12 — meaningful gap-2.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Umar NurmagomedovBekzat Almakhan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Umar Nurmagomedov(9 fights)Bekzat Almakhan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.2|Blue -67.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Umar NurmagomedovTargetBekzat Almakhan

By target zone

68% acc · 94%

Head

8% acc · 33%

Body

67% acc · 67%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

54% acc · 10%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

Clinch

72% acc · 90%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Umar Nurmagomedov rounds

even

Bekzat Almakhan rounds

Round 1Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control4:21

Knockdowns0

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns3

Control3:06

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:25Control

Round 3Umar Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control3:59

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 98

Sig Strikes

3 / 16

75%

Sig Str %

28.7%

145 / 197

Total Strikes

5 / 25

5 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

11:26

Ctrl Time

0:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Bekzat Almakhan	2 / 3	3 / 7	0 / 0
1	Umar Nurmagomedov	7 / 8	43 / 49	1 / 1
2	Bekzat Almakhan	0 / 8	0 / 9	0 / 0
2	Umar Nurmagomedov	39 / 60	52 / 83	3 / 3
3	Bekzat Almakhan	1 / 5	2 / 9	0 / 0
3	Umar Nurmagomedov	22 / 30	50 / 65	1 / 1

Umar Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights9

Bekzat Almakhan

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4