Flyweight

3 Rounds

Ulka Sasaki won · Submission R2

Elo1491

Elo1357

Ulka SasakivsWillie GatesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · Sunday, May 8, 2016Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands

Official fight result

Ulka Sasaki won

Submission · Round 2 · 3:30

Model Prediction: Willie Gates wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Ulka Sasaki wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Willie Gates at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ulka Sasaki threatens submissions; Willie Gates has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Ulka Sasaki (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Ulka Sasaki

Red Corner

Willie Gates

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1357

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'8"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Ulka Sasaki

oldest →

DECvs Wilson Reis · Feb 17

SUBvs Justin Scoggins · Jun 17

SUBvs Jussier Formiga · Sep 17

SUBvs Jenel Lausa · Jun 18

SUBvs Alexandre Pantoja · Nov 18

latest

Willie Gates

oldest →

SUBvs John Moraga · Dec 14

KOvs Darrell Montague · Jul 15

KOvs Dustin Ortiz · Aug 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Ulka SasakiMetricWillie Gates

—

Strikes / min

1.80

—

Strikes absorbed / min

4.28

—

Strike defense

38%

—

TDs / 15 min

0.00

—

Takedown defense

67%

—

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Ulka SasakiWillie Gates

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Ulka Sasaki(9 fights)Willie Gates(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +134.4|Blue -134.4

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +49.0|Blue -49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Ulka Sasaki

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights1

Willie Gates

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4