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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Tyson Pedro won · SUB R1
Elo1501
Elo1492

Tyson PedrovsSaparbeg SafarovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 221: Romero vs. Rockhold · Saturday, February 10, 2018Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Tyson Pedro won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:54

Model Prediction: Tyson Pedro wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Tyson Pedro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tyson Pedro at -300 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyson Pedro has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Pedro
Red Corner
VS
Saparbeg Safarov
Blue Corner
-300
(75%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1501
Elo
1492
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
200.66 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Pedro
oldest →
W
KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22
W
KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22
L
vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23
W
KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23
L
vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24
latest
Saparbeg Safarov
oldest →
L
KOvs Gian Villante · Dec 16
W
vs Nicolae Negumereanu · Mar 19
L
SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Mar 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson PedroMetricSaparbeg Safarov
2.90
Strikes / min
4.03
2.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.96
56%
Strike defense
47%
0.76
TDs / 15 min
2.52
50%
Takedown defense
33%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.51evenly matched on net striking+1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1484Strikes19.3 vs 37.0Takedowns0.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.33 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs -1.0
Tyson PedroSaparbeg Safarov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Saparbeg Safarov(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +8.6|Blue -8.6
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Layoff
Red -274.0|Blue +274.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson PedroTargetSaparbeg Safarov

By target zone

6
35% acc · 50%
Head
6
30% acc · 75%
2
100% acc · 17%
Body
1
100% acc · 13%
4
100% acc · 33%
Leg
1
100% acc · 13%

By position

10
56% acc · 83%
Distance
4
29% acc · 50%
2
40% acc · 17%
Clinch
3
50% acc · 38%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tyson Pedro rounds
0
even
1
Saparbeg Safarov rounds
Round 1Saparbeg Safarov edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:01
8Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:18Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 23
Sig Strikes
8 / 22
52%
Sig Str %
36%
17 / 28
Total Strikes
10 / 24
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 5
0%
TD %
40%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:01
Ctrl Time
1:18

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Saparbeg Safarov8 / 2210 / 242 / 50
1Tyson Pedro12 / 2317 / 280 / 11

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11

Saparbeg Safarov

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights4