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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tyson Pedro won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1501

Elo1473

Tyson PedrovsPaul CraigUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyson Pedro won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Model Prediction: Paul Craig wins(73.8%)

Actual result: Tyson Pedro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Paul Craig at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Paul Craig enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Paul Craig has lost 55% of fights by KO.
Tyson Pedro has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tyson Pedro has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Pedro

Red Corner

Paul Craig

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1501

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Pedro

oldest →

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24

latest

Paul CraigL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Brendan Allen · Nov 23

KOvs Caio Borralho · May 24

vs Bo Nickal · Nov 24

vs Rodolfo Bellato · Jun 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson PedroMetricPaul Craig

2.90

Strikes / min

2.50

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

56%

Strike defense

43%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

1.43

50%

Takedown defense

35%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.05 — meaningful gap-0.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson PedroPaul Craig

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Paul Craig(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +27.8|Blue -27.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson PedroTargetPaul Craig

By target zone

64% acc · 78%

Head

15% acc · 17%

75% acc · 13%

Body

88% acc · 58%

67% acc · 9%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

44% acc · 17%

Distance

25% acc · 33%

53% acc · 35%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

100% acc · 48%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Pedro rounds

even

Paul Craig rounds

Round 1Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control2:37

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 35

Sig Strikes

12 / 24

65%

Sig Str %

50%

34 / 46

Total Strikes

29 / 47

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 3

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:37

Ctrl Time

0:06

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Paul Craig	12 / 24	29 / 47	0 / 3	0
1	Tyson Pedro	23 / 35	34 / 46	0 / 0	0

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Paul Craig

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20