Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Modestas Bukauskas won · U-DEC R3

Elo1501

Elo1538

Tyson PedrovsModestas BukauskasUFC Prediction Result

UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Saturday, February 11, 2023Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Modestas Bukauskas won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tyson Pedro wins(71.0%)

Actual result: Modestas Bukauskas wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tyson Pedro at -215 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Modestas Bukauskas has lost 80% of fights by KO.
Modestas Bukauskas has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Modestas Bukauskas (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Pedro

Red Corner

Modestas Bukauskas

Blue Corner

-215

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1501

Elo

1538

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Pedro

oldest →

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 18

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24

latest

Modestas Bukauskas

oldest →

KOvs Rafael Cerqueira · Feb 25

vs Ion Cutelaba · May 25

KOvs Paul Craig · Sep 25

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jan 26

DECvs Christian Edwards · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson PedroMetricModestas Bukauskas

2.90

Strikes / min

3.24

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

4.05

56%

Strike defense

50%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.26

50%

Takedown defense

79%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.32 — meaningful gap-0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson PedroModestas Bukauskas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Modestas Bukauskas(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -37.5|Blue +37.5

Recent Form

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson PedroTargetModestas Bukauskas

By target zone

40% acc · 40%

Head

28% acc · 57%

74% acc · 44%

Body

92% acc · 27%

78% acc · 16%

Leg

88% acc · 16%

By position

53% acc · 87%

Distance

36% acc · 77%

83% acc · 11%

Clinch

71% acc · 23%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Pedro rounds

even

Modestas Bukauskas rounds

Round 1Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:46

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:27

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:14Control

Round 3Modestas Bukauskas edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:48

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 81

Sig Strikes

44 / 109

55%

Sig Str %

39%

54 / 90

Total Strikes

56 / 121

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:01

Ctrl Time

0:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Modestas Bukauskas	10 / 25	11 / 26	0 / 0
1	Tyson Pedro	8 / 19	10 / 21	2 / 2
2	Modestas Bukauskas	11 / 35	14 / 38	0 / 0
2	Tyson Pedro	18 / 25	19 / 26	0 / 1
3	Modestas Bukauskas	23 / 49	31 / 57	0 / 0
3	Tyson Pedro	19 / 37	25 / 43	0 / 0

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Modestas Bukauskas

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights12