Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tyson Pedro won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1501

Elo1422

Tyson PedrovsIke VillanuevaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · Saturday, April 23, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyson Pedro won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:55

Model Prediction: Tyson Pedro wins(79.1%)

Actual result: Tyson Pedro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tyson Pedro at -630 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Ike Villanueva has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Tyson Pedro has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Ike Villanueva has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tyson Pedro has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Pedro

Red Corner

Ike Villanueva

Blue Corner

-630

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+450

(18%)

1501

Elo

1422

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'1"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Pedro

oldest →

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 18

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23

KOvs Anton Turkalj · Sep 23

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24

latest

Ike VillanuevaL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chase Sherman · May 20

KOvs Jordan Wright · Aug 20

KOvs Vinicius Moreira · Jan 21

KOvs Marcin Prachnio · Jun 21

KOvs Nicolae Negumereanu · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson PedroMetricIke Villanueva

2.90

Strikes / min

3.66

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

7.24

56%

Strike defense

36%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.60

50%

Takedown defense

100%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 4.09 — meaningful gap-3.58

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson PedroIke Villanueva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Ike Villanueva(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +78.6|Blue -78.6

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +1057.0|Blue -1057.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson PedroTargetIke Villanueva

By target zone

59% acc · 45%

Head

10% acc · 50%

100% acc · 23%

Body

100% acc · 25%

100% acc · 32%

Leg

100% acc · 25%

By position

76% acc · 86%

Distance

19% acc · 100%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 9%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Pedro rounds

even

Ike Villanueva rounds

Round 1Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:04

Knockdowns1

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 29

Sig Strikes

4 / 22

75%

Sig Str %

18%

22 / 29

Total Strikes

4 / 22

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ike Villanueva	4 / 22	4 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Tyson Pedro	22 / 29	22 / 29	0 / 0	0

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Ike Villanueva

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6