Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tyson Pedro won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1501

Elo1481

Tyson PedrovsAnton TurkaljUFC Prediction Result

UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Saturday, September 9, 2023Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Tyson Pedro won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:12

Model Prediction: Anton Turkalj wins(56.0%)

Actual result: Tyson Pedro wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Anton Turkalj at -122 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Anton Turkalj enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyson Pedro is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Anton Turkalj has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tyson Pedro has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Pedro

Red Corner

Anton Turkalj

Blue Corner

+102

(50%)

Vegas Odds

-122

(55%)

1501

Elo

1481

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson PedroL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mauricio Rua · Dec 18

KOvs Ike Villanueva · Apr 22

KOvs Harry Hunsucker · Aug 22

vs Modestas Bukauskas · Feb 23

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 24

latest

Anton TurkaljL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jailton Almeida · Sep 22

vs Vitor Petrino · Mar 23

KOvs Ibo Aslan · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson PedroMetricAnton Turkalj

2.90

Strikes / min

2.45

2.39

Strikes absorbed / min

3.42

56%

Strike defense

54%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

4.98

50%

Takedown defense

16%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.51Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap-0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson PedroAnton Turkalj

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Pedro(10 fights)Anton Turkalj(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.4|Blue -19.4

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson PedroTargetAnton Turkalj

By target zone

50% acc · 75%

Head

23% acc · 38%

50% acc · 6%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

40% acc · 50%

By position

54% acc · 94%

Distance

29% acc · 75%

Clinch

67% acc · 25%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Pedro rounds

even

Anton Turkalj rounds

Round 1Tyson Pedro edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 29

Sig Strikes

8 / 24

55%

Sig Str %

33%

16 / 29

Total Strikes

9 / 25

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anton Turkalj	8 / 24	9 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Tyson Pedro	16 / 29	16 / 29	0 / 0	0

Tyson Pedro

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights11

Anton Turkalj

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4