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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Nik Lentz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1395

Tyson GriffinvsNik LentzUFC Prediction Result

UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · Saturday, November 20, 2010Auburn Hills, Michigan, USA

Official fight result

Nik Lentz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTyson Griffin: Elusive strikervsNik Lentz: Wrestler

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Nik Lentz wins(90.0%)

Actual result: Nik Lentz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nik Lentz at +190 American odds

+$190 profit

$290 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nik Lentz enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyson Griffin has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tyson Griffin has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Griffin

Red Corner

Nik Lentz

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+190

(34%)

1490

Elo

1395

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Griffin

oldest →

vs Evan Dunham · Jun 10

KOvs Takanori Gomi · Aug 10

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jun 11

KOvs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 11

latest

Nik LentzL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gray Maynard · Oct 18

vs Scott Holtzman · Feb 19

KOvs Charles Oliveira · May 19

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 20

vs Movsar Evloev · Jan 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson GriffinMetricNik Lentz

3.71

Strikes / min

3.44

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

65%

Strike defense

50%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

3.30

59%

Takedown defense

43%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.41Δ 1.22 — meaningful gap+0.19

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson GriffinNik Lentz

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Griffin(5 fights)Nik Lentz(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +95.3|Blue -95.3

Recent Form

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Layoff

Red +27.0|Blue -27.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson GriffinTargetNik Lentz

By target zone

40% acc · 61%

Head

43% acc · 56%

100% acc · 16%

Body

100% acc · 26%

100% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 18%

By position

47% acc · 74%

Distance

60% acc · 79%

67% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 12%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

38% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Griffin rounds

even

Nik Lentz rounds

Round 1Tyson Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns4

Control3:20

13Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Tyson Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns3

Control2:05

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Tyson Griffin edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:43

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:22Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

31 / 60

Sig Strikes

34 / 59

51%

Sig Str %

62.7%

66 / 102

Total Strikes

75 / 102

8 / 13

TDs

4 / 8

75%

TD %

61%

Sub Att

Rev

7:08

Ctrl Time

3:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nik Lentz	13 / 14	39 / 40	1 / 1	1
1	Tyson Griffin	7 / 15	7 / 16	4 / 8	0
2	Nik Lentz	14 / 32	18 / 36	1 / 3	1
2	Tyson Griffin	12 / 24	23 / 37	3 / 4	0
3	Nik Lentz	7 / 13	18 / 26	2 / 4	1
3	Tyson Griffin	12 / 21	36 / 49	1 / 1	1

Tyson Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Nik Lentz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22