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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Evan Dunham won · S-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1385

Tyson GriffinvsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · Saturday, June 12, 2010Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Evan Dunham won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTyson Griffin: Elusive strikervsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Tyson Griffin wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Evan Dunham wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tyson Griffin at -180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Evan Dunham has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Evan Dunham (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyson Griffin

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-180

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1490

Elo

1385

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyson Griffin

oldest →

KOvs Takanori Gomi · Aug 10

vs Nik Lentz · Nov 10

vs Manvel Gamburyan · Jun 11

KOvs Bart Palaszewski · Oct 11

latest

Evan DunhamL3 streak

oldest →

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

KOvs Francisco Trinaldo · Sep 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyson GriffinMetricEvan Dunham

3.71

Strikes / min

5.33

2.30

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

65%

Strike defense

61%

1.87

TDs / 15 min

1.82

59%

Takedown defense

79%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.41evenly matched on net striking+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyson GriffinEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyson Griffin(5 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +105.3|Blue -105.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyson GriffinTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

23% acc · 38%

Head

28% acc · 61%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 32%

67% acc · 62%

Leg

67% acc · 7%

By position

37% acc · 96%

Distance

36% acc · 86%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

80% acc · 14%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyson Griffin rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:00Control

Round 2Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:54Control

Round 3Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:18

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:59Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

26 / 70

Sig Strikes

28 / 73

32.7%

Sig Str %

37%

62 / 117

Total Strikes

52 / 107

0 / 2

TDs

3 / 6

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:18

Ctrl Time

8:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Evan Dunham	14 / 33	24 / 48	2 / 4	0
1	Tyson Griffin	17 / 34	31 / 53	0 / 0	0
2	Evan Dunham	6 / 18	8 / 21	1 / 1	1
2	Tyson Griffin	3 / 17	23 / 42	0 / 0	1
3	Evan Dunham	8 / 22	20 / 38	0 / 1	0
3	Tyson Griffin	6 / 19	8 / 22	0 / 2	0

Tyson Griffin

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17