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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Vicente Luque won · SUB

Elo1398

Elo1504

Tyron WoodleyvsVicente LuqueUFC Prediction Result

UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, March 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Vicente Luque won

SUB

Model Prediction: Vicente Luque wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Vicente Luque wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Vicente Luque at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley

Red Corner

Vicente Luque

Blue Corner

+170

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-200

(67%)

1398

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL3 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Jul 17

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

latest

Vicente Luque

oldest →

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Mar 24

SUBvs Themba Gorimbo · Dec 24

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 25

vs Joel Alvarez · Oct 25

SUBvs Kelvin Gastelum · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricVicente Luque

2.36

Strikes / min

4.80

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

5.24

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.89

87%

Takedown defense

59%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyron WoodleyVicente Luque

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Vicente Luque(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -106.6|Blue +106.6

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetVicente Luque

By target zone

26% acc · 39%

Head

68% acc · 60%

83% acc · 56%

Body

91% acc · 40%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

29% acc · 44%

Distance

70% acc · 64%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

90% acc · 36%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyron Woodley rounds

even

Vicente Luque rounds

Round 1Vicente Luque edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:22

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

18 / 40

Sig Strikes

25 / 33

45%

Sig Str %

75%

21 / 43

Total Strikes

41 / 49

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:22

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Vicente Luque	25 / 33	41 / 49	0 / 0	1
1	Tyron Woodley	18 / 40	21 / 43	0 / 1	0

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Vicente Luque

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights23