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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Tyron Woodley won · M-DEC R5
Elo1398
Tyron Woodley
Elo1482
Stephen Thompson

Tyron WoodleyvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · Saturday, March 4, 2017Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

M-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stephen Thompson wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephen Thompson at -140 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Stephen Thompson enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Tyron Woodley has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley
Red Corner
VS
Stephen Thompson
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-140
(58%)
1398
Elo
1482
44
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19
L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20
L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21
latest
Stephen ThompsonL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21
W
KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Dec 23
L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24
L
vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricStephen Thompson
2.36
Strikes / min
4.05
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
54%
Strike defense
54%
1.06
TDs / 15 min
0.23
87%
Takedown defense
63%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1586 vs 1624Strikes27.3 vs 47.6Takedowns0.4 vs 0.5Sub Atts0.22 vs 0.00Form0.9 vs 1.1
Tyron WoodleyStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -84.7|Blue +84.7
Recent Form
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -42.0|Blue +42.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

28
31% acc · 52%
Head
30
26% acc · 57%
20
67% acc · 37%
Body
17
71% acc · 32%
6
100% acc · 11%
Leg
6
86% acc · 11%

By position

30
33% acc · 56%
Distance
52
36% acc · 98%
5
42% acc · 9%
Clinch
1
50% acc · 2%
19
90% acc · 35%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Tyron Woodley rounds
2
even
1
Stephen Thompson rounds
Round 1Even round
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control0:00
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
8Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Tyron Woodley edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns1
Control1:48
14Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:19Control
Round 4Stephen Thompson edged it
Sig. strikes9
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Tyron Woodley edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns1
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
54 / 125
Sig Strikes
53 / 146
44%
Sig Str %
36%
70 / 141
Total Strikes
66 / 159
1 / 2
TDs
0 / 0
50%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
1:58
Ctrl Time
0:19

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Stephen Thompson6 / 196 / 190 / 00
1Tyron Woodley5 / 125 / 120 / 00
2Stephen Thompson8 / 248 / 240 / 00
2Tyron Woodley8 / 168 / 160 / 00
3Stephen Thompson14 / 2827 / 410 / 00
3Tyron Woodley15 / 2830 / 431 / 20
4Tyron Woodley9 / 229 / 220 / 00
4Stephen Thompson12 / 3412 / 340 / 00
5Stephen Thompson13 / 4113 / 410 / 00
5Tyron Woodley17 / 4718 / 480 / 00

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights21