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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Tyron Woodley won · S-DEC R3

Elo1398

Elo1492

Tyron WoodleyvsKelvin GastelumUFC Prediction Result

UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz · Saturday, January 31, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kelvin Gastelum wins(70.1%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kelvin Gastelum at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Kelvin Gastelum (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley

Red Corner

Kelvin Gastelum

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1398

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

187.96 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Kelvin Gastelum

oldest →

SUBvs Sean Brady · Dec 23

vs Daniel Rodriguez · Jun 24

vs Joe Pyfer · Jun 25

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Sep 25

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricKelvin Gastelum

2.36

Strikes / min

3.65

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.52

54%

Strike defense

57%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

1.04

87%

Takedown defense

60%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking+0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyron WoodleyKelvin Gastelum

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Kelvin Gastelum(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -93.8|Blue +93.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetKelvin Gastelum

By target zone

18% acc · 52%

Head

12% acc · 41%

45% acc · 37%

Body

48% acc · 34%

50% acc · 11%

Leg

73% acc · 25%

By position

24% acc · 85%

Distance

20% acc · 88%

57% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyron Woodley rounds

even

Kelvin Gastelum rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:04

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 3Kelvin Gastelum edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:22

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 104

Sig Strikes

32 / 143

26%

Sig Str %

21.3%

34 / 112

Total Strikes

40 / 151

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

0:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kelvin Gastelum	6 / 30	6 / 30	0 / 0
1	Tyron Woodley	6 / 25	6 / 25	0 / 0
2	Kelvin Gastelum	10 / 51	14 / 55	0 / 0
2	Tyron Woodley	12 / 35	15 / 38	0 / 0
3	Kelvin Gastelum	16 / 62	20 / 66	0 / 0
3	Tyron Woodley	9 / 44	13 / 49	0 / 0

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Kelvin Gastelum

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights24