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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Kamaru Usman won · U-DEC R5
Elo1398
Tyron Woodley
Elo1489
Kamaru Usman editorial illustration

Tyron WoodleyvsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · Saturday, March 2, 2019Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Kamaru Usman won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Kamaru Usman wins(83.3%)

Actual result: Kamaru Usman wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kamaru Usman at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Kamaru Usman (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley
Red Corner
VS
Kamaru Usman
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
1398
Elo
1489
44
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Demian Maia · Jul 17
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18
L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20
L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21
latest
Kamaru Usman
oldest →
L
KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22
L
vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23
L
vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23
W
vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25
L
DECvs Dricus Du Plessis · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricKamaru Usman
2.36
Strikes / min
4.16
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
2.67
54%
Strike defense
55%
1.06
TDs / 15 min
2.79
87%
Takedown defense
89%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40Δ 1.89 — meaningful gap+1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1644 vs 1659Strikes34.5 vs 58.6Takedowns0.4 vs 4.4Sub Atts0.25 vs 0.22Form1.1 vs 1.1
Tyron WoodleyKamaru Usman

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -91.7|Blue +91.7
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red +83.0|Blue -83.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

12
43% acc · 35%
Head
56
54% acc · 40%
18
95% acc · 53%
Body
83
95% acc · 59%
4
100% acc · 12%
Leg
2
67% acc · 1%

By position

10
42% acc · 29%
Distance
27
37% acc · 19%
24
89% acc · 71%
Clinch
78
95% acc · 55%
0
Ground
36
92% acc · 26%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tyron Woodley rounds
0
even
5
Kamaru Usman rounds
Round 1Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:53Control
Round 2Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
21Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:23Control
Round 3Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns0
Control0:00
45Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:51Control
Round 4Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:00
38Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
3:26Control
Round 5Kamaru Usman edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:40Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
34 / 51
Sig Strikes
141 / 194
58%
Sig Str %
74.8%
60 / 79
Total Strikes
336 / 390
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 6
0%
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
18:13

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Kamaru Usman22 / 3268 / 780 / 30
1Tyron Woodley8 / 1119 / 220 / 10
2Kamaru Usman21 / 2974 / 821 / 10
2Tyron Woodley1 / 35 / 70 / 00
3Kamaru Usman45 / 5978 / 930 / 00
3Tyron Woodley14 / 1922 / 280 / 00
4Tyron Woodley10 / 1613 / 200 / 00
4Kamaru Usman38 / 5855 / 750 / 00
5Kamaru Usman15 / 1661 / 621 / 20
5Tyron Woodley1 / 21 / 20 / 00

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights20