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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Tyron Woodley won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1398
Tyron Woodley
Elo1352

Tyron WoodleyvsJay HieronUFC Prediction Result

UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · Saturday, February 2, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:36

Model Prediction: Jay Hieron wins(81.7%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jay Hieron at +150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
  • Tyron Woodley is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Jay Hieron has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tyron Woodley has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley
Red Corner
VS
Jay Hieron
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1398
Elo
1352
44
Age
50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19
L
vs Gilbert Burns · May 20
L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21
latest
Jay Hieron
oldest →
L
vs Jake Ellenberger · Oct 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricJay Hieron
2.36
Strikes / min
1.66
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
1.89
54%
Strike defense
61%
1.06
TDs / 15 min
4.05
87%
Takedown defense
66%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1485Strikes— vs 15.7Takedowns— vs 3.0Sub Atts— vs 1.00Form0.0 vs -0.9
Tyron WoodleyJay Hieron

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Jay Hieron(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +45.8|Blue -45.8
Recent Form
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Striker Score
Red +49.4|Blue -49.4
Grappler Score
Red +49.1|Blue -49.1
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetJay Hieron

By target zone

13
68% acc · 87%
Head
0
0% acc
2
67% acc · 13%
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

2
40% acc · 13%
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
13
76% acc · 87%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Tyron Woodley rounds
0
even
0
Jay Hieron rounds
Round 1Tyron Woodley edged it
Sig. strikes15
Takedowns0
Control0:09
Knockdowns1
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
15 / 22
Sig Strikes
0 / 2
68%
Sig Str %
0%
15 / 22
Total Strikes
0 / 2
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:09
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jay Hieron0 / 20 / 20 / 00
1Tyron Woodley15 / 2215 / 220 / 00

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Jay Hieron

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2