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Welterweight
5 Rounds
Gilbert Burns won · U-DEC R5
Elo1398
Tyron Woodley
Elo1466
Gilbert Burns

Tyron WoodleyvsGilbert BurnsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · Saturday, May 30, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gilbert Burns won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Gilbert Burns wins(53.4%)

Actual result: Gilbert Burns wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gilbert Burns at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Tyron Woodley enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Gilbert Burns enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
  • Tyron Woodley is a KO finisher (56% of wins). Gilbert Burns has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Tyron Woodley has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley
Red Corner
VS
Gilbert Burns
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1398
Elo
1466
44
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
187.96 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL3 streak
oldest →
W
vs Demian Maia · Jul 17
W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 18
L
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19
L
KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20
L
SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21
latest
Gilbert BurnsL5 streak
oldest →
L
vs Belal Muhammad · May 23
L
KOvs Jack Della Maddalena · Mar 24
L
vs Sean Brady · Sep 24
L
KOvs Michael Morales · May 25
L
KOvs Mike Malott · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricGilbert Burns
2.36
Strikes / min
3.16
2.76
Strikes absorbed / min
3.68
54%
Strike defense
52%
1.06
TDs / 15 min
2.04
87%
Takedown defense
53%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.40evenly matched on net striking-0.52

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1627 vs 1633Strikes2.5 vs 3.1Takedowns1.2 vs 2.4Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.70Form0.1 vs 1.0
Tyron WoodleyGilbert Burns

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14501468148515031520← oldermost recent →
Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Gilbert Burns(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -67.9|Blue +67.9
Recent Form
Red -0.9|Blue +0.9
Striker Score
Red +0.4|Blue -0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red +378.0|Blue -378.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetGilbert Burns

By target zone

14
32% acc · 50%
Head
41
50% acc · 49%
12
71% acc · 43%
Body
27
87% acc · 33%
2
67% acc · 7%
Leg
15
60% acc · 18%

By position

19
35% acc · 68%
Distance
51
50% acc · 61%
9
100% acc · 32%
Clinch
13
81% acc · 16%
0
Ground
19
95% acc · 23%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Tyron Woodley rounds
0
even
5
Gilbert Burns rounds
Round 1Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:26Control
Round 2Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:33
11Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
2:09Control
Round 3Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes4
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:09
18Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:55Control
Round 5Gilbert Burns edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control1:03
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:28Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
28 / 64
Sig Strikes
83 / 138
43%
Sig Str %
60.6%
65 / 101
Total Strikes
156 / 211
0 / 2
TDs
2 / 8
0%
TD %
33.3%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
2:47
Ctrl Time
7:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gilbert Burns25 / 3429 / 380 / 00
1Tyron Woodley2 / 85 / 110 / 00
2Gilbert Burns11 / 2037 / 461 / 20
2Tyron Woodley12 / 1734 / 390 / 10
3Gilbert Burns19 / 4219 / 420 / 00
3Tyron Woodley4 / 174 / 170 / 00
4Tyron Woodley5 / 812 / 150 / 10
4Gilbert Burns18 / 2447 / 531 / 21
5Gilbert Burns10 / 1824 / 320 / 40
5Tyron Woodley5 / 1410 / 190 / 00

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights15

Gilbert Burns

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights24