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Welterweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Tyron Woodley won · SUB R2

Elo1398

Elo1443

Tyron WoodleyvsDarren TillUFC Prediction Result

UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · Saturday, September 8, 2018Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Tyron Woodley won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:19

Model Prediction: Darren Till wins(54.9%)

Actual result: Tyron Woodley wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Darren Till at -115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tyron Woodley enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Darren Till enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tyron Woodley has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Darren Till (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyron Woodley

Red Corner

Darren Till

Blue Corner

-105

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-115

(53%)

1398

Elo

1443

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

6'0"

187.96 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyron WoodleyL4 streak

oldest →

vs Demian Maia · Jul 17

vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 19

vs Gilbert Burns · May 20

KOvs Colby Covington · Sep 20

SUBvs Vicente Luque · Mar 21

latest

Darren TillL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 19

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Nov 19

vs Robert Whittaker · Jul 20

SUBvs Derek Brunson · Sep 21

SUBvs Dricus Du Plessis · Dec 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyron WoodleyMetricDarren Till

2.36

Strikes / min

2.30

2.76

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

54%

Strike defense

56%

1.06

TDs / 15 min

0.55

87%

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.40evenly matched on net striking-1.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tyron WoodleyDarren Till

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyron Woodley(10 fights)Darren Till(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -45.7|Blue +45.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +302.0|Blue -302.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyron WoodleyTargetDarren Till

By target zone

70% acc · 82%

Head

0% acc

78% acc · 12%

Body

100% acc · 5%

Leg

By position

37% acc · 12%

Distance

0% acc

83% acc · 9%

Clinch

83% acc · 79%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyron Woodley rounds

even

Darren Till rounds

Round 1Tyron Woodley edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:23

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Tyron Woodley edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns0

Control4:06

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 79

Sig Strikes

0 / 6

64.5%

Sig Str %

74 / 97

Total Strikes

1 / 7

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

5:29

Ctrl Time

0:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Till	0 / 3	1 / 4	0 / 0	0
1	Tyron Woodley	11 / 23	16 / 28	0 / 4	0
2	Darren Till	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 0	0
2	Tyron Woodley	46 / 56	58 / 69	0 / 0	1

Tyron Woodley

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15

Darren Till

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights11