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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bryce Mitchell won · M-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1528

Tyler DiamondvsBryce MitchellUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Undefeated Finale · Friday, July 6, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bryce Mitchell won

M-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTyler Diamond: WrestlervsBryce Mitchell: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Bryce Mitchell wins(50.5%)

Actual result: Bryce Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bryce Mitchell at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bryce Mitchell has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tyler Diamond has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Bryce Mitchell (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tyler Diamond

Red Corner

Bryce Mitchell

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-140

(58%)

1491

Elo

1528

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'10"

175.26 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tyler DiamondNo prior UFC fights on record.

Bryce MitchellW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Emmett · Dec 23

KOvs Kron Gracie · Dec 24

SUBvs Jean Silva · Apr 25

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 25

SUBvs Santiago Luna · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tyler DiamondMetricBryce Mitchell

3.40

Strikes / min

2.27

2.53

Strikes absorbed / min

1.60

44%

Strike defense

58%

3.00

TDs / 15 min

3.24

70%

Takedown defense

33%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking+0.67

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tyler Diamond(1 fights)Bryce Mitchell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -36.9|Blue +36.9

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tyler DiamondTargetBryce Mitchell

By target zone

39% acc · 67%

Head

58% acc · 76%

86% acc · 24%

Body

50% acc · 24%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

0% acc

By position

32% acc · 39%

Distance

33% acc · 34%

20% acc · 2%

Clinch

70% acc · 18%

75% acc · 59%

Ground

90% acc · 47%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tyler Diamond rounds

even

Bryce Mitchell rounds

Round 1Bryce Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns1

Control1:01

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 2Tyler Diamond edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control3:35

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 3Tyler Diamond edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control3:56

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

51 / 107

Sig Strikes

38 / 69

49.7%

Sig Str %

51.3%

72 / 129

Total Strikes

45 / 78

3 / 4

TDs

3 / 10

66.7%

TD %

21.7%

Sub Att

Rev

8:32

Ctrl Time

2:12

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bryce Mitchell	15 / 30	16 / 33	2 / 5	0
1	Tyler Diamond	11 / 42	14 / 45	1 / 1	0
2	Bryce Mitchell	19 / 25	25 / 31	1 / 4	1
2	Tyler Diamond	20 / 29	26 / 35	0 / 1	0
3	Bryce Mitchell	4 / 14	4 / 14	0 / 1	0
3	Tyler Diamond	20 / 36	32 / 49	2 / 2	0

Tyler Diamond

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights1

Bryce Mitchell

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14