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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Ivan Erslan won · Decision R3
Elo1482
Elo1485

Tuco TokkosvsIvan ErslanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · Saturday, May 16, 2026Las Vegas, USA

Official fight result

Ivan Erslan won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Tuco Tokkos wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Ivan Erslan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Ivan Erslan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Tuco Tokkos threatens submissions; Ivan Erslan has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Ivan Erslan has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Tuco Tokkos has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Tuco Tokkos
Red Corner
VS
Ivan Erslan
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
1482
Elo
1485
36
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tuco Tokkos
oldest →
L
SUBvs Oumar Sy · May 24
L
vs Navajo Stirling · Dec 24
W
SUBvs Junior Tafa · Jul 25
latest
Ivan ErslanL3 streak
oldest →
L
vs Ion Cutelaba · Sep 24
L
vs Navajo Stirling · May 25
L
SUBvs Jimmy Crute · Sep 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tuco TokkosMetricIvan Erslan
2.12
Strikes / min
2.55
4.27
Strikes absorbed / min
5.01
46%
Strike defense
53%
4.21
TDs / 15 min
0.45
33%
Takedown defense
61%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.15evenly matched on net striking-2.46
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14401460148015001520← oldermost recent →
Tuco Tokkos(4 fights)Ivan Erslan(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -2.2|Blue +2.2
Recent Form
Red +1.1|Blue -1.1
Striker Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +77.0|Blue -77.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Tuco Tokkos

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights3

Ivan Erslan

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights3