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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Melsik Baghdasaryan won · U-DEC R3

Elo1465

Elo1474

Tucker LutzvsMelsik BaghdasaryanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Saturday, July 15, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melsik Baghdasaryan won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupTucker Lutz: Well-roundedvsMelsik Baghdasaryan: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins(57.8%)

Actual result: Melsik Baghdasaryan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melsik Baghdasaryan at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Melsik Baghdasaryan enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Melsik Baghdasaryan has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Melsik Baghdasaryan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Tucker Lutz

Red Corner

Melsik Baghdasaryan

Blue Corner

+126

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1465

Elo

1474

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Tucker LutzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Aguilar · May 21

vs Pat Sabatini · Nov 21

SUBvs Daniel Pineda · Mar 23

latest

Melsik BaghdasaryanL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Collin Anglin · Jul 21

vs Bruno Souza · Nov 21

SUBvs Josh Culibao · Feb 23

KOvs Jean Silva · Feb 25

SUBvs Murtazali Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Tucker LutzMetricMelsik Baghdasaryan

3.74

Strikes / min

5.04

3.25

Strikes absorbed / min

3.14

44%

Strike defense

56%

1.99

TDs / 15 min

0.00

69%

Takedown defense

72%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.49Δ 1.41 — meaningful gap+1.90

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Tucker LutzMelsik Baghdasaryan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Tucker Lutz(4 fights)Melsik Baghdasaryan(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -8.9|Blue +8.9

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Tucker LutzTargetMelsik Baghdasaryan

By target zone

20% acc · 39%

Head

48% acc · 50%

57% acc · 44%

Body

75% acc · 47%

60% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

32% acc · 94%

Distance

57% acc · 78%

50% acc · 6%

Clinch

69% acc · 17%

Ground

75% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Tucker Lutz rounds

even

Melsik Baghdasaryan rounds

Round 1Tucker Lutz edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control2:56

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:35

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Melsik Baghdasaryan edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control2:48

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 109

Sig Strikes

64 / 108

30.7%

Sig Str %

58.7%

41 / 115

Total Strikes

74 / 122

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

36%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

6:19

Ctrl Time

0:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melsik Baghdasaryan	11 / 19	14 / 23	0 / 0
1	Tucker Lutz	12 / 27	13 / 28	1 / 4
2	Melsik Baghdasaryan	28 / 49	28 / 49	0 / 0
2	Tucker Lutz	21 / 64	22 / 65	1 / 3
3	Melsik Baghdasaryan	25 / 40	32 / 50	0 / 0
3	Tucker Lutz	3 / 18	6 / 22	1 / 2

Tucker Lutz

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4

Melsik Baghdasaryan

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6